Current Outlook
"Election over...."
With Trump's reelection, the next two months represent a chance for
either cooperation by the two major parties or continued disagreement
about the direction of the country.
Unfortunately, I believe that it will be devoid of cooperation
between the two parties. Moreover, a cadre of Republicans will also
try to slow down Trump's cabinet choices and other appointees.
The big question is ... will Trump still be alive before he is
sworn in and what happens if he isn't!
During the interim period, the Democratic party will attempt to
stuff more liberal judges into life-time positions and fight most of
Trump's cabinet nominees. The changing of the guard is not going
to be nice.
Restatements of many government economic reports are proving that
almost all have been overstated and the economy has been facing more
headwinds than the over-heated stock market pretends.
Full-time jobs in the private sector continue to deteriorate while
part-time and government jobs increase. A sign that U.S. manufacturing
capability continues to decrease. Do you really believe the
Biden jobs data?.
Problems of military escalation on every front from the Mideast,
Ukraine, and China and Latin America continue to face a weak and
confused Biden Administration.
With the current stated federal debt above $35 trillion
(about 200% of true GDP) and the GAAP federal debt over $220
trillion, the day of reckoning is just around the corner.
China, India and Japan have all dumped a sizeable portion of their
holdings of U.S. government debt during the last six months.
Economic data is revised and methodology changed to present a false
picture for the public.
Major U.S. real estate companies are declaring bankruptcy as
U.S. interest rates approach 6%. Both credit card and auto loans are
looking at increasing delinquency rates.
The growth in credit card debt is greater than the growth in personal
income as individuals try to maintain their standard of living.
Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX
to 2,500 and the DJIA sees the 25,000 level.
Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"
Remember to ... "Keep It Safe, Simple and Stay Focused!" going
forward.
Fred Richards
November 15, 2024
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